Kris Wheaton’s reflection on his class discussion (How to Analyze Black Swans) is useful in understanding the challenge of elaborating future possibilities in intelligence assessments.
Mark Lowenthal’s comment on Black Swans also illuminates an important aspect of uncertainty—while a situation may be completely mysterious to some observers, others may be very familiar with every aspect of it. Their knowledge, however, may not be transferable to intelligence analysts.
Read more at:
http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/intelligence-assessment-and.html
